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China’s Slowing Birth Rate: Can Beijing Reverse The Trend?
China’s Slowing Birth Rate: Can Beijing Reverse The Trend?
The latest statistics from China’s once-in-a-decade census have disproved reports that its population had declined, but it does raise questions over whether policymakers can defy the odds by reversing its declining birth rate.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its 2020 census figures on Tuesday, which showed the country’s population had risen from 1.40 billion in 2019 to 1.41 billion in 2020 and effectively dispelled predictions of a decline in the number of people in the world’s second-largest economy.
The number of new-borns, though, dropped with just 12 million babies born in China last year compared to over 14 million in 2019.
Can a society recover its birth rate if it had previously sought to decrease it? To my knowledge, no society in history has ever succeeded in turning the switch back on once it had been turned off.
Nobody has ever succeeded in reconstituting the old birth rate. But China may offer an interesting test case, having implemented a strict one-child policy in 1979 and only relaxing this policy since 2016. As the Chinese population becomes more comfortable with the government regulations and increasingly enjoy a better life, how successful will this reversal be?
Don’t underestimate China. It practices social management to a greater extent than perhaps any other country, so its ability to provide incentives and promote birth rates will also exceed that of most others.
Ning Jizhe, the head of the bureau, conceded that it would still be a challenge for China to boost the ailing fertility rate, even though Beijing has already relaxed its decades-long family planning policy.
“The lifting on the restriction on the second-child has paid off…The change of policy has resulted in an additional of 10 million newborn second children. Low fertility rates have become a common challenge facing a lot of developed countries, it’s also a challenge for China,” Ning told a press conference in Beijing.
On the other hand, the decrease is a phenomenon, but is it a problem? China’s economy should continue to grow nicely over the next few decades, even if the population were to shrink. It is not clear to what extent the Chinese government views this as a special China problem, or as a symptom that many other countries are facing. If China’s population were to stabilize at a level 10% smaller than today, my guess is Chinese leadership would view that as satisfactory or even welcome development.
But “stabilize” is the catch. With a closed political system and state-run media, China can have a greater recognition lag than other governments. It tends to move incrementally in social management and a change in policy can take several years to evaluate.
To some extent, China might be a victim of its own success. More people in China are living life on their own terms than ever before: Free to travel, to enjoy life, to participate in modern consumer culture.
The bottom line: I believe China is in for an extended period of partial steps with limited results, and then the need for more steps. This cycle will last a few years and then repeat. It will only be over a few decades whether we can evaluate whether China has adopted the right mixture of policies and incentives.
Read More : สล็อตทดลองเล่น
The latest statistics from China’s once-in-a-decade census have disproved reports that its population had declined, but it does raise questions over whether policymakers can defy the odds by reversing its declining birth rate.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its 2020 census figures on Tuesday, which showed the country’s population had risen from 1.40 billion in 2019 to 1.41 billion in 2020 and effectively dispelled predictions of a decline in the number of people in the world’s second-largest economy.
The number of new-borns, though, dropped with just 12 million babies born in China last year compared to over 14 million in 2019.
Can a society recover its birth rate if it had previously sought to decrease it? To my knowledge, no society in history has ever succeeded in turning the switch back on once it had been turned off.
Nobody has ever succeeded in reconstituting the old birth rate. But China may offer an interesting test case, having implemented a strict one-child policy in 1979 and only relaxing this policy since 2016. As the Chinese population becomes more comfortable with the government regulations and increasingly enjoy a better life, how successful will this reversal be?
Don’t underestimate China. It practices social management to a greater extent than perhaps any other country, so its ability to provide incentives and promote birth rates will also exceed that of most others.
Ning Jizhe, the head of the bureau, conceded that it would still be a challenge for China to boost the ailing fertility rate, even though Beijing has already relaxed its decades-long family planning policy.
“The lifting on the restriction on the second-child has paid off…The change of policy has resulted in an additional of 10 million newborn second children. Low fertility rates have become a common challenge facing a lot of developed countries, it’s also a challenge for China,” Ning told a press conference in Beijing.
On the other hand, the decrease is a phenomenon, but is it a problem? China’s economy should continue to grow nicely over the next few decades, even if the population were to shrink. It is not clear to what extent the Chinese government views this as a special China problem, or as a symptom that many other countries are facing. If China’s population were to stabilize at a level 10% smaller than today, my guess is Chinese leadership would view that as satisfactory or even welcome development.
But “stabilize” is the catch. With a closed political system and state-run media, China can have a greater recognition lag than other governments. It tends to move incrementally in social management and a change in policy can take several years to evaluate.
To some extent, China might be a victim of its own success. More people in China are living life on their own terms than ever before: Free to travel, to enjoy life, to participate in modern consumer culture.
The bottom line: I believe China is in for an extended period of partial steps with limited results, and then the need for more steps. This cycle will last a few years and then repeat. It will only be over a few decades whether we can evaluate whether China has adopted the right mixture of policies and incentives.
Read More : สล็อตทดลองเล่น